Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The average figure of everyday killings each month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new administrative figures. But, public safety experts have cautioned that murder numbers might not signal improved national security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it may obscure days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.